Split Payment: Estimated reach of the new charge is billions, says study

Estimated reach of the new charge is billions, says study

In the ten largest publicly traded retailers in the country, split payment will be applied to around R$12 billion in consumption taxes, points out Peers Consulting + Technology

By Luiza Calegari — From São Paulo

Although it should only be fully implemented in 2033, tax collection through the “split payment” method worries the market because of the estimated impact on billions of reais in companies’ cash flow – especially those of large retail players. On the other hand, the new method of tax collection can reduce costs with judicialization, experts point out.

A survey by Peers Consulting + Technology with ten of the country's largest publicly traded retailers indicates that the method should be applied to what is currently equivalent to around R$12 billion in consumption taxes. Analyzing companies' balance sheets and using an average assumption to discount Income Tax charges, the survey estimates that the impact will be around 40% of all taxes already paid by retailers, which totaled around R$30 billion in 2024.

This volume concerns current taxes related to consumption (ICMS and ISS, at the state and municipal levels, and PIS/Cofins and IPI, at the federal level), which will be replaced by the Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS) and Tax on Goods and Services (IBS).

Daniel Chimelli, responsible for the survey, explains that the values are estimates, since the scenario is still quite undefined and not even the rates of the new taxes on consumption are known yet. “The future looks promising, with the prospect of avoiding tax evasion and ending the tax war, but the transition stage tends to be very complex”, he analyzes.

Today, in general terms, the tax amount is embedded in the price of the product and is paid by the company monthly, after sale. With split payment, companies will have the amount deducted directly by the financial institution, for each purchase and sale transaction.

The main concern for companies, according to experts, is with cash flow, especially considering operations in which the end consumer pays with a credit card, since the operator will already be able to withhold the tax at that time. The explanation is from lawyer Ana Claudia Utumi, from Utumi Advogados. “It is not yet clear what it will be like if the retailer has accumulated credit, but, depending on the dynamics adopted, the impact could be significant”, he states.

To make this adjustment, companies will have to map out all their tax obligations and adopt measures to avoid surprises, adds Gustavo Brigagão, from Brigagão, Duque Estrada Advogados. “Companies will have to review their cash flow, which is severely compromised mainly in credit purchases, renegotiate with suppliers, review cost structures, seek lines of credit and think about individualized financial planning that makes sense”, he states.

According to him, the main doubt in this initial phase, before the changes are implemented, is how the transition from the old taxation format to the new one will take place, “taking into account the complexity of having to deal, for several years, with two confusing and poorly regulated systems at the same time”.

Taxpayers also still do not have clarity on how to deal with accumulated ICMS credits. This is due to the lack of monetary correction, the excessively long period for refund and the subjection to approval by the Tax Authorities, “which is, as a rule, done inefficiently”, says the tax expert.

Taymara Fátima Pereira and Paulo de Tarso da Costa Silva also point out, in an article published by Valor, that compared to other countries that adopt the same instrument, the Brazilian model is unprecedented in scope. In Europe, for example, in most cases, split payment is adopted to combat sectoral Value Added Tax (VAT) fraud.

On the other hand, according to Michel Hernane Noronha, from Maneira Advogados, judicial litigation will greatly decrease with the tax reform, including the adoption of split payment. He explains that as the new taxes, CBS and IBS, will have a broad impact, this could put an end to the discussion about the calculation basis. The new tax system will also allow for greater crediting than the current one, which tends to reduce discussions between the tax authorities and taxpayers.

“The company itself calculates the debits and credits and, if there is no disagreement regarding what will be included, the balance will hardly generate a subsequent dispute”, he says. “Of the balance that is determined to be due, the taxpayer can now deduct what was collected via split payment”, explains Noronha.

This investigation of companies will continue to be subject to supervision by government bodies. If there are important disagreements, he says, the judicial route will continue to be available, but this simplification in tax collection should reduce the volume of tax foreclosures.

According to data from the Justice in Numbers 2025 report, compiled by the National Council of Justice (CNJ), in December last year there were 21.3 million tax foreclosures pending in the country. They represent around 25% of the total number of pending cases and 52% of executions that have not yet been completed in the Judiciary.

Noronha highlights that the impact of split payment should be even greater for persistent debtors, who do the tax assessment and choose not to pay. This is no longer a possibility when the discount is made directly on the transaction, explains the expert.

A study by the Federal Revenue Service shows that, in the last decade, the country failed to collect R$200 billion from around 1,200 companies that did not pay taxes. The survey was cited by senator Efraim Filho, rapporteur of a bill that provides for stricter rules to deal with this problem. PLP 125/2022 has already been approved by the Senate and is being processed in the Chamber of Deputies.

When approached by Valor, PGFN declined to comment on the topic, and the Federal Revenue Service did not respond until the report was completed.

https://valor.globo.com/legislacao/noticia/2025/11/03/alcance-estimado-da-nova-cobranca-e-bilionario-diz-estudo.ghtml